Quarterly Brief · Q2 2026
April 1 – June 30, 2026| Tier | Contracts | Volume | Median | PPSF | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2025 | |
| Luxury | 312 | 303 +3.0% |
344 −9.3% |
$3.18B | $3.26B −2.4% |
$3.32B −4.1% |
$7.20M | $7.45M −3.4% |
$7.25M −0.7% |
$2,778 | $3,034 −8.4% |
$2,849 −2.5% |
| Prime | 155 | 156 −0.6% |
174 −10.9% |
$2.26B | $2.37B −4.8% |
$2.31B −2.3% |
$11.50M | $11.44M +0.5% |
$10.89M +5.6% |
$3,357 | $3,615 −7.1% |
$3,342 +0.4% |
| Trophy | 24 | 30 −20.0% |
29 −17.2% |
$804.1M | $969.5M −17.1% |
$758.4M +6.0% |
$24.73M | $25.60M −3.4% |
$25.50M −3.0% |
$5,087 | $5,677 −10.4% |
$5,507 −7.6% |
Contracts and Volume match the hero grid above. Source: Data Powered by Marketproof. Quarters recorded since Q2 2021. Foundational Report →
Price per square foot is falling borough-wide, even as certain neighborhoods heat up. The borough-wide figure is compressing quarter over quarter across every tier, while the gains showing up in specific neighborhoods trace back to individual new developments.
Prime buyers are paying more on a median-price basis this year (+5.6% YoY), even as per-square-foot pricing fell quarter over quarter across every tier, Prime included (down 7.1% for Prime alone). Luxury and Trophy median prices both softened year over year. That's a different signal than PPSF alone would suggest.
Ten neighborhoods carried 76.3% of Q2's Luxury dollar volume. This section shows how differently each one gets there.
This section looks at the ten neighborhoods that produce the large majority of Manhattan's Luxury-tier deal volume over the trailing twelve months, and shows how differently each one gets there. Some, like West Village and Tribeca, are highly concentrated: a large share of everything that sells there clears the Luxury floor, so that these neighborhoods are functionally luxury-first markets. Others, like Upper West Side, are large markets where Luxury contracts are still a minority of all deals. That much non-Luxury inventory pulls down the neighborhood's blended numbers. Think of one owner running both a $50 diner and a $400 tasting menu: blend their checks into a single average, and that average describes neither business. Even where the surrounding market looks different, a Luxury listing there is still a submarket within a submarket.
Ranked by Luxury dollar volume.
All 10 neighborhoods on two axes instead of two table columns. Dot size = each neighborhood's total dollar volume across all price tiers, same trailing-twelve-month window.
Dashed lines mark the median of these Luxury (top 10%) figures across all 10 neighborhoods, shown for reference only.
The scatter chart above shows how these neighborhoods sit relative to each other; it can't show what's inside any one of them. Each bar below covers the entire market (100%), split into exclusive price bands, with Deal-Count Intensity shown as its own bar on the same honest 0–100% scale.
Source: Data Powered by Marketproof, trailing-twelve-month window, matching the methodology used elsewhere in this report.
| 2025 | 2026 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | Neighborhood | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | QoQ | YoY |
Ten neighborhoods hold 79.6% of all Luxury volume over the trailing twelve months, and West Village sits at the top of that list. West Village leads dollar concentration at 74.4%, the highest of any top-10 neighborhood.
Tribeca stands alone at high intensity, leading unit intensity at 34%. One in three deals crosses the Manhattan Luxury floor, and no other top-10 neighborhood comes close. High intensity makes Tribeca's market structurally Luxury-first. A small total contract count (249) makes each deal high-signal.
Upper West Side runs the second-highest absolute count of any top-10 neighborhood (122 Luxury contracts, behind Upper East Side's 146) but only 37.1% dollar concentration, the lowest of any top-10 neighborhood. This is a large market where Luxury is a real but minority layer. A seller here is competing against more inventory at more price points than in any other top-10 neighborhood.
Entry price to the Luxury tier itself swings widely by neighborhood. West Village's Q2 2026 median Luxury contract signed at $11.00M, roughly 80% above Tribeca's $6.12M and 51% above Lenox Hill's $7.30M. Concentration and intensity describe how much of a neighborhood's market is Luxury; median describes what Luxury costs to enter there, and the two don't move together here. Tribeca leads intensity at 34% while posting the lowest of these three medians, and West Village leads concentration at 74.4% while posting the highest.
A few of these neighborhoods run almost entirely on one or two buildings. This section names them.
These are the new developments that materially move their neighborhood’s Luxury market, and here’s how: fourteen sponsor buildings ranked by signed-contract volume at or above the $4.95M Manhattan Luxury floor, trailing twelve months (Q3 2025–Q2 2026, TTM). In several neighborhoods, these buildings make the market on their own.
| # | Building | Neighborhood | TTM $ Volume | Units | Vol. Share | Sales Start | Bldg PPSF | Nbhd PPSF (excl.) | PPSF Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1122 Madison Avenue | Upper East Side | $404.55M | 22 | 22.5% | 2026-01-25 | $5,211 | $2,499 | +108.5% |
| 2 | 80 Clarkson Street | West Village | $319.28M | 8 | 29.7% | 2025-03-18 | $8,353 | $3,003 | +178.2% |
| 3 | Flatiron Building | Flatiron | $287.98M | 14 | 72.3% | 2025-10-10 | $4,730 | $1,817 | +160.3% |
| 4 | One High Line | West Chelsea | $241.30M | 23 | 46.6% | 2022-09-14 | $3,848 | $2,762 | +39.3% |
| 5 | 50 West 66th Street | Lincoln Square | $226.97M | 15 | 26.4% | 2022-11-29 | $4,623 | $3,109 | +48.7% |
| 6 | 255 East 77th | Upper East Side | $222.81M | 20 | 12.4% | 2024-09-24 | $3,276 | $2,499 | +31.1% |
| 7 | 111 West 57th Street | Midtown | $171.00M | 7 | 18.4% | 2018-09-30 | $5,256 | $3,391 | +55.0% |
| 8 | Sixteen Fifth Avenue | Greenwich Village | $136.30M | 8 | 24.0% | 2025-04-03 | $4,141 | $2,778 | +49.1% |
| 9 | 35 Hudson Yards | Hudson Yards | $132.72M | 16 | 86.2% | 2017† | $2,509 | $1,898 | +32.2% |
| 10 | 140 Jane Street | West Village | $129.45M | 3 | 12.1% | 2024-09-04 | $7,434 | $3,003 | +147.6% |
| 11 | The Henry | Upper West Side | $120.72M | 10 | 12.6% | 2024-09-16 | $2,841 | $2,026 | +40.2% |
| 12 | Central Park Tower | Midtown | $116.80M | 4 | 12.6% | 2019† | $6,831 | $3,391 | +101.4% |
| 13 | 53W53 | Midtown | $101.42M | 6 | 10.9% | 2016-03-03 | $4,701 | $3,391 | +38.6% |
| 14 | Towers of the Waldorf Astoria | Midtown | $84.75M | 10 | 9.1% | 2017† | $4,267 | $3,391 | +25.8% |
New development in Manhattan has consistently commanded a PPSF premium over resale. All 14 buildings in this table command a meaningfully higher PPSF than their neighborhood’s true resale market. That resale baseline excludes every other new-development building in the comparison, isolating the one building being measured. 80 Clarkson Street (+178.2%), Flatiron Building (+160.3%), 140 Jane Street (+147.6%), and 1122 Madison Avenue (+108.5%) lead, and every building in the group clears +25%, including the lowest, Towers of the Waldorf Astoria, at +25.8%.
Volume concentration is extreme in a handful of neighborhoods. 35 Hudson Yards alone is 86.2% of all $4.95M+ volume in Hudson Yards, a thin, low-liquidity market where one building is effectively the entire Luxury segment. Flatiron Building is 72.3% of Flatiron, and One High Line is still 46.6% of West Chelsea.
That premium traces to a real floor under new construction. A developer breaking ground today has to clear land plus the cost to build before signing the first buyer, and construction costs are up 50.2% since 2016.‡ Existing resale carries no such floor: the same decade saw Trophy-tier resale gain just 11.9%. New development prices to what it costs to build today. Resale prices to its last comp.
Building-level detail confirmed via completion year, first-closing date, sponsor/resale sale composition, and per-unit sale history, which corroborates and extends the dataset’s own sponsor/resale tag. Nbhd PPSF (excl.) computes its resale baseline after removing every new-development building in that neighborhood. Sales Start dates marked † (Central Park Tower, 35 Hudson Yards, Towers of the Waldorf Astoria) are sourced from public record.
80 Clarkson Street sales-strategy detail per The Real Deal (May 2025, December 2025, May 2026) and Commercial Observer (June 2026), and the building’s own May 2026 AG disclosure amendment. Figures above $1B in signed volume circulating in press coverage are sponsor-sourced and unconfirmed until deeds record.
Days on market is deliberately excluded from this section. Sponsor sales are frequently negotiated off-market before any public listing, and manual-contract sponsor sales in this dataset often carry no days-on-market field at all (confirmed on 80 Clarkson Street and 1122 Madison Avenue).
Any DOM comparison between new development and resale would mostly reflect how sponsor sales get recorded, which makes it unreliable for comparing actual pace. Worth revisiting if sponsor-sale DOM reporting improves. This is a known dataset limitation that we'll keep revisiting as reporting improves.
Those building premiums don't stay contained to one address. This section shows what they do to the neighborhood around them.
This table covers Luxury-tier contracts, $4.95M and up. Neighborhood PPSF (price per square foot) ranges from roughly 1.4× the borough average in West Village down to about 0.8× in the Upper East and Upper West Sides.
| Neighborhood | Q2 2026 | vs Boro Avg | Q2 2025 | YoY | Ct | Disc. from Ask | Disc. YoY |
|---|
This table's PPSF window is trailing 13 weeks (one quarter), matching Section 2.
Disc. from Ask = average discount-to-list %, Luxury closed sales only.
5-year PPSF trend by neighborhood, 5 TTM-ending-June years, toggle to the PPSF metric. Foundational Report, Part IV →
PPSF moves trace directly back to Section 3's building-level story. West Village fell −13.3% YoY even while staying the borough's most concentrated Luxury market. 80 Clarkson Street and 140 Jane Street together are still over 40% of the neighborhood's volume. Lincoln Square (+28.7%) and Greenwich Village (+18.7%) show the opposite pattern: 50 West 66th Street and Sixteen Fifth Avenue are pulling those neighborhoods' averages up.
One strong building isn't always enough to move a big market. Upper East Side and Upper West Side both drifted slightly negative YoY (−3.6%, −5.2%) despite each having a real, high-impact new building: 1122 Madison Avenue (+108.5% PPSF impact) and The Henry (+40.2%). In markets this large, broader softening still outweighs any single building's premium.
Sellers are holding firmer on price in the two neighborhoods with the most new-development activity. Midtown and Upper East Side both show discount-from-ask tightening sharply YoY (Midtown −13.6%→−4.4%, Upper East Side −12.3%→−3.5%) even as resale PPSF softens in both.
Price is only half of what a listing competes on. The other half is speed. This section covers how fast Luxury is moving, and how much of it is still unsold.
Luxury contracts only · Borough avg: 160 days · % = speed vs borough avg (positive = faster, negative = slower)
| Quarter | Luxury | Prime | Trophy | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory | QoQ | YoY | Inventory | QoQ | YoY | Inventory | QoQ | YoY | |
| Q3 2025 | 978 | +6.4% | −27.3% | 607 | +7.1% | −22.5% | 163 | +8.7% | −1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | 959 | −1.9% | −17.0% | 592 | −2.5% | −15.1% | 158 | −3.1% | −3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | 895 | −6.7% | −18.6% | 544 | −8.1% | −17.2% | 147 | −7.0% | −5.2% |
| Q2 2026 | 1,064 | +18.9% | +15.8% | 646 | +18.8% | +13.9% | 176 | +19.7% | +17.3% |
Same underlying series as this report's quarterly table above. Foundational Report, Part V →
Both borough averages on this page, 160 days (DOM) and 11.8 months (supply), are computed across the full Manhattan Luxury dataset, rather than as an average of the 10 neighborhoods charted above. The 10 rows shown average to roughly 177 days and 11.4 months on their own; that gap is expected, since the borough figure includes activity outside the top 10 too.
That's the market as it stood through June 30. Everything from here changes on July 1.
The annual surcharge on non-primary-residence condos and co-ops is now law. Q2 2026 is the last quarter of pre-tax contract data. The numbers below are the baseline, the reference point every future quarterly will compare against. Q3 2026 (data available in October) is the first quarter where the tax can be read in the data.
312 Luxury contracts is the Q2 2026 baseline, up 3.0% quarter over quarter. Trophy, the tier most exposed to the surcharge, moved the other way, falling 20.0% QoQ to 24 contracts. Trophy's quarterly base is small (historically 6–38 contracts a quarter), so read that move directionally rather than as a precise measurement. Billing does not start until January 2027, so whether Q3 2026 contract activity shows a readable tax effect is a wait-and-see question.
Q3 2026 data, out in October, will show whether the surcharge is already changing decisions at this level.
Estimated-market-value figures are drawn directly from the property's own DOF tax bill. The example above is illustrative only. It doesn't represent surcharge amounts across the broader pied-à-terre buyer pool. Collection has not begun; first billing is January 1, 2027, so how the surcharge is actually implemented remains to be seen. This is not tax advice. Consult your accountant or tax advisor. Full surcharge schedule, including the separate market-value basis for one-to-three-family homes. Foundational Report, Part VI →
Scarcity decides these deals. Where real scarcity exists, sellers hold the leverage; where it doesn't, buyers do. Product type and location determine which side of that line any single Prime or Trophy deal falls on, more than the broader cycle. Buyers at this level know the market and negotiate with real discipline.